this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2024
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chapotraphouse
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My money is on this being the thing that directly causes the US to balkanize, and only because it seems to be against the hexbear main consensus. This site was wrong about the invasion of Ukraine, I think this is going to be Hexbear tradition.
Wrong about the beginning of events, but correct about their trajectory once they have begun
But often only because we go "No, that won't happen, that would be stupid and counterproductive for the West" but then they just do the thing anyway and so we just go "...okay, well, they're gonna lose then"
I think the skepticism toward the invasion of Ukraine was completely correct and valid, we just forgot we live in hell world.
It was a Thatcher bombing situation. The libs crying wolf about Russia only have to get lucky once, we have to get lucky every single time. They like to forget that they were howling about an imminent Russian invasion for months and even US analysts no longer considered it plausible. And then it happened.
i mean the specific miscalculation was basically not accounting for the Putin government having any motivations beyond the national interest of Russia.
Ever since Ukraine, my partner scoffs whenever I say “nothing major is going to happen.” I can’t say they’re wrong
I had a large discussion with some colleagues about there not "being anything going on in Ukraine" because they had finally, after weeks/months of scaremongering, picked up on the news that "something was going to happen in Ukraine".
This argument took place on february the 24th. I had not heard the news because I had finally tuned out, because nothing was going to happen lol. I literally said "I'll call it a war when there's tanks rolling into Ukraine!" Not knowing that at that moment, tanks were rolling into Ukraine.
OOF lmao
I don't blame you. That was a lot of us. US dem-party-leaning media screeched about Russiagate for 6 years, wearing everyone's patience thin on anti-Russian scaremongering and creating a "boy who cried wolf" effect. All the libs I know were very smug that day.
How they doin these days?
Bidening their time
i remember the night before i had a drunken discussion with friends at uni and said i thought nothing was going to happen and the next day tanks went in
Happens to the best of us, literally. Lenin said revolution wasn't going to happen in his lifetime.
lmao Lenin as a nothing-ever-happens guy is really funny to me
Nothing to Be Done by V. I. Lenin
that might be rough if time were real
Thank god right
What an idiot! Hate to be that guy
Ukraine is like the only thing this site has been wrong about, and that's only because we forgot the number one rule -- the stupidest thing that can happen is the one most likely to happen
And that rule is the exact same reason the site will be wrong this time. Most users are assuming rational action, forgetting they live in dumbworld
oh yeah?
Technically that was a different site
We always knew he was a succdem and was very likely to get crushed by the machine. There was a small window where we were beating the odds and felt like our original, correct take was too pessimistic. God that was a good couple of weeks
it was literally the last time I felt joy
Yeah I'm a Marxist-Contrarianist too
So a Marxist
Naw my vibe based interpretation says not shit happens
Disclaimer: I was wrong about covid
I just assume it's all gong to happen now. Once years started to happen, all bets were off.
I actually anticipated a war in Ukraine (because I had been listening to Alex Mercouris and for months throughout 2021 he was very pessimistic about the various diplomatic negotiations leading up to February 2022), I simply did not expect it to happen this soon. I thought it would be another year or so, but those who had been following closely the US-Russia summit in 2021 knew that the US was dead set on provoking a war in Ukraine.