No one is leading or trailing, because no one has voted.
Polls are not even a little bit predictive this far out.
Polls contain no actionable data for voters unless they are looking days before the election and want to strategically vote in a race with more than 2 candidates.
This far out (end of 2015), Republicans thought Hillary was a shoe-in.
Should’ve gotten rid of the electoral college years ago.
It's a relic from a time when only land owners could vote and pretty much only white men could own land.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Those grim numbers partially reflect softness among his base: About one-quarter of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters in each state disapprove of Biden, and a little more than 4 in 10 say his policies have not helped the country’s economy.
Biden’s campaign is working to sell voters on the success of his economic agenda, with a recently launched ad in Michigan focused on small businesses and the middle class.
A similar share of Michigan voters, 46%, say that the criminal charges Trump faces relating to efforts to overturn the last presidential election are disqualifying if true, with an additional 14% saying they would, at a minimum, cast doubts on his fitness for the job.
Likely GOP primary voters, though, mostly say that even if true, the criminal charges Trump is facing related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election are not relevant to his fitness for the presidency (64% in Michigan and 70% in Georgia feel that way).
It is possible the GOP field could narrow after the first contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, and in both of the states polled, hypothetical one-on-one matchups with either DeSantis or Haley find Trump expanding his majority support rather than a tightened race.
About 7 in 10 registered voters in Michigan, and a similar 68% in Georgia, say they’re at least somewhat confident that votes in their state will be accurately cast and counted in next year’s election.
The original article contains 2,064 words, the summary contains 239 words. Saved 88%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
Oh, goodie. Fivethirtyeight, which has gotten it wrong the last several times and which no longer has the founder or his model (i.e. under new management).
Totally accurate predictions a fucking year out, I'm sure. /s
Remindme 1 year
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News