This garbage article didn't even say who did the poll.
this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2024
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[an NBC person] “Over time, we have been testing for five years now, going back to 2019—a Biden-Trump match-up. Remember 2019, 2020 Joe Biden led. He led big in every single one of our polls. For the first time in November, Donald Trump pulled ahead in our poll. And now, at five points, this is the biggest lead NBC has ever had in 16 polls for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.”
It’s not the clearest, but the information is there.
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Dude all you do is shit on Biden, and you find all sorts of dubious sources to do so. Are you sure you are left leaning?
I think it's fair to make people aware of what Democrats are up against here. There's an actual risk that Trump will return to the oval office if we don't show up to vote. And, unfortunately, Democrats don't show up to vote nearly as consistently as Republicans, so it's a real risk.
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Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn't have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
Arizona: Trump +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan: Trump +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Minnesota: Biden +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Nevada: Trump +8 to +12
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Biden +8 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Pennsylvania: Biden +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin: Tie to Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:
Trump wins 293 to 245.
This is a change from the last times I posted this where Trump won, 312 to 226 and 278 to 260. Michigan is still polling for Trump instead of Biden, Pennsylvania has BARELY slipped back to Biden.
Michigan and Wisconsin BOTH are must wins for Biden. He must also hold Pennsylania. Those three would put him at 270 even. Failing there is what doomed Hillary in 2016.
Previously, Biden needed to pick up +10.
Well, that’s disconcerting.
Oh, yeah, Imma be watching it like a HAWK through the rest of the primaries and the conventions.
I expect to do regular updates like this. It will be more of a nailbiter than anyone expects... Except for those of us in safe states.
I live in Oregon and I already know it's going Biden. What worries me are these toss-up states.
The most idiotic part of this is the statement that it’s the lowest for an incumbent president since GWB. Guess what? Bush won reelection. The same thing is happening here. Biden is polling low, but will win. No one wants the dictator Trump in office.
W was the start of the current polarization era with Obama being the catalyst for the tea party chuds to pour fuel on the fire. With the current polarization, you’ll never see a president have the same sort of general approval or popularity we used to see.
Weird how the Quinnipac poll from Friday said the opposite. It's almost like the Media wants a horse race & you're a sucker for it.
There is a reason these polls ask how you feel instead of who you plan on voting for.
Also, +5 points? Nationwide Dems have been beating polls at the ballot box by +9 points since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
Why use yahoo news?
It's all rehosted content, and for some reason freezes my phones browser like half the time.
I will not take any of these statistics until the real thing happens. They've done this bullshit back in 2020 and the result took most by surprise.
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