this post was submitted on 27 Feb 2024
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[–] [email protected] 177 points 8 months ago (7 children)

He doesn't have to broaden support to win. Biden just has to lose support.

In 2020, Biden won 81,283,501 to 74,223,975.

But the popular vote doesn't count.

What put him over the top were:

Georgia - 2,473,633 to 2,461,854 = 11,779 votes. Pennsylvania - 3,459,923 to 3,378,263 = 81,660
Michigan - 2,804,040 to 2,649,852 = 154,188 Wisconsin - 1,630,866 to 1,610,184 = 20,682
Arizona - 1,672,143 to 1,661,686 = 10,457

Biden didn't win by 7,059,526 votes. All those extra votes in places like California and New York didn't count.

He won by 278,766 votes in 5 key states. That's it.

Now, since we aren't pushing hard on vote by mail this year, how many voters do you think will disengage and not vote?

[–] [email protected] 64 points 8 months ago (1 children)

God that’s fucking depressing! Thanks for putting it in perspective.

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[–] [email protected] 53 points 8 months ago (8 children)

Biden won because of the youth vote, millennials and gen z out numbered boomers and silent generation for the first time.

But this year he's only up 4 points in the 18-34 demo.

It's fucking insane seeing so many people insisting we can't talk about these issues while there's still time to fix it.

Biden just doesn't want to actually do things that would get him votes. Even something basic like doing interviews, it's like the 2024 Biden campaign is just going to be hiding him in a closet while the media talks about how bad trump would be and all of Bidens aides claim he's a completely different person off camera

I really don't think it will be enough this time. And it's fucking terrifying

[–] [email protected] 24 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (3 children)

Just a note that polling of Millenials and younger is known to be wildly inaccurate since we don't follow traditional news media, so extrapolating a sample to a state or national value is functionally guesswork.

This is why polling stated Obama wasn't going to be re-elected and everyone was expecting a big Romney win.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 8 months ago (5 children)

Not sure where you're getting that. FiveThirtyEight's presidential model doesn't solely rely on polling, but it's the prominent factor, and it was bang on that year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/nate-silver-election-forecasts-right

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago (5 children)

Got a source for that "everyone was expecting a Romney win" thing?

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[–] [email protected] 20 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Saying things like "Well, they're totally different off camera" sank both Dole and Clinton as well.

Pics or it didn't happen.

Add to that the lack of will to do debates...

[–] [email protected] 8 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Neither are doing primary debates, and there's no way a general debate happens.

We won't see either even attempt to answer a difficult question, and they'll both still fuck up the easy ones.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Biden I get, the sitting President doesn't have to debate.

In Trump's case, he has nothing to gain by it, so that also makes sense.

Once they lock down the candidacy though, there had better be debates.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 8 months ago

It's tradition to do 3, last time they only did 2.

I'd be surprised if they do 1, especially if either of them answer a difficult question.

So much shit has been thrown out the window already.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (5 children)

The same youths who helped him win in 2020 will be needed this year. And I'm not 100% sure that a senile moderate is enticing enough to bring out the required votes, even if the other guy is a senile fascist-wannabe.

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 8 months ago

The game isn't to be the best person to fix America. The game is not fucking up.

They tell people what they think online and on tv, you don't need a debate. The only thing that can happen to old men like Trump and Biden on a debate stage is them fucking up.

A massive win on stage wouldnt change their base or sway people more than pundits hammering your point eloquently for you, but a fuck up would end them, so they don't go.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 8 months ago (4 children)

Keep in mind that it's still February. The election is in November. If he did all of that now, the energy it generates would be worn off by then. Hopefully the strategy is to gear up the campaign in summer.

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[–] [email protected] 24 points 8 months ago (2 children)

Which is why you suddenly see all these sockpuppet accounts posting about how bad Biden is.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 8 months ago (2 children)

I have to let this out, and your comment was the trigger. Lucky you.

Three things are pissing me off in this election in particular.

  • Undecideds. There's supposed to be this huge center (well, 30%) of unaffiliated "undecided" voters. Who TF are these people, who look at the modern Republican party and at Trump, and go: "hmmm. I just don't know. Do I vote for the bland old guy, or the fascist, philandering, traitorous tax-avoiding old guy who's under inditement in several states? I just don't know!"
  • Primaries. Lots of liberals - myself included - are furious with Biden about his support of Israel in this ethnic cleansing. The primaries should be the place where we can express our displeasure, and is almost the only forum we have to exert (generally) direct electoral pressure. But we can't, because doing so harms Biden's chances in the general election by sowing discord - c.f. the very relevant Bernie Bros, who refused to vote for Hillary even after Bernie threw in with her.
  • Biden's cabinet. Whoever is in charge of his PR is doing a shit job. I learn more on Lemmy about Biden's accomplishments than I do in the general news. Biden's doing a good job in many areas, but Joe Public doesn't know because Biden's PR staff have their heads up their asses.

It's utterly insane; the electoral college needs to be dumped, there's no doubt about that, and adoption of approval voting, or ranked choice -- almost anything would be better. But even with these issues, the US managed to work for 200 years, until the past few election cycles, and it's just gotten insane.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (2 children)

I'm annoyed the primaries are a foot note in both parties. I know Trump has the gop by the balls but damn.

Biden camp is running the same playbook from 2020. Lay low and hope Trump pisses off more people than Biden does.

Honestly it must be why the GOP keep pushing the genocide joe narrative. Joe won't give them a noose so they are fishing for liberal issues they don't give a shit about hoping his own base will turn on him. Sucks to be the GOP though because how do you pivot from that?

Politics is disgusting and Dems seem to think defense is the only way. For me, it's a shit way to play the game and all it does is run out the clock.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 8 months ago

The problem is, I don't believe they are all sock puppets. It would be foolish to think that people on the left aren't as susceptible to disinfo as people on the right. Plus the complaints are totally valid. Biden is too old, he is supporting Israel's genocide, he is just barely a centrist, and he will just enable the status quo instead of affecting real positive change in the country. What's at stake is much more dire. I'm willing to wait another 4 years to try again for a more progressive candidate rather than gamble now on a less than 1% chance of a slightly better candidate and a 99% chance of trump and the likely end of free and fair elections.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 8 months ago (9 children)

All true. In the US, you don't have to win a majority to win the election.

But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.

And if they just show up to the same degree as in 2020, Trump still needs to broaden support in the key swing states to actually win them. If he's not doing it nationally, chances are he's not doing it in the battlegrounds.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 8 months ago (3 children)

Without vote by mail, they won't show up to the same degree. Trump's vote was driven by in person votes, Biden by vote by mail.

That's not going to be true this year. And like I showed, the margins in those key states is super slim.

Georgia - Trump +6 to +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Arizona - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Biden can't win without these states and if the election were today?

[–] [email protected] 15 points 8 months ago (11 children)

Whatever the polls say, do you have any idea what a mess the GOP in Michigan is? We're having a primary and two competing caucuses because we have two heads of the state party and they are bankrupt. There is a lawsuit to sell their headquarters to pay their bills. And we came out for abortion rights big time in 22, which Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the fucking head with.

There is zero ground game. I can't believe it's even possible for Trump to win here, polls be damned.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Michigan became a wierd place last week.

On top of GOP issues, a few dems started fighting against biden for the primary

GOP sinking means MI probably turns blue, right?

[–] [email protected] 5 points 8 months ago

Biden win here in 2020. Democrats took full control of state government in 22 for the first time since 1983. Arguably the biggest failure of the "red wave."

Will that hold? I don't know but while there are pockets of strong support for Trump, we don't seem to like his endorsed candidates one bit. Given their disarray, I don't see a path to victory for them. But we do have a very large Muslim population which is currently upset with Biden, so it's not all roses.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 8 months ago (1 children)

It's neat how we kept DeJoy in charge at the post office after his fuckery in the last election.

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (8 children)

it's still too early to call bro polls aren't accurate this far from November bro

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 8 months ago

Don't forget that the ROC had a catastrophic midterm. Also Jan 6th and Roe/Wade were no jokes and will continue to not be joking.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 8 months ago

It's also February. November is coming but alot can change and people can decide to vote after summer. Most people think it's a decision that can be made later.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago

Most of those votes weren't for Biden though they were against trump. Trump is still trump last I checked so I will vote against him again and hope for the best