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Looking at the way this is going, I'm genuinely starting to wonder if Donald Trump ends up jailed for contempt sooner rather than later. It seems Merchan's patience has been exhausted.
"Prosecutor Christopher Conroy has just said that prosecutors are not seeking jail time for Trump’s violations of the gag order.
We are not yet seeking incarceratory penalty. Defendant seems to be angling for that … We are asking the court to impose the maximum $1,000 fine for each violation."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/apr/23/trump-hush-money-trial-new-york-updates
"Defendant seems to be angling for that" ... so? Why are they taking into consideration what Trump wants? Just treat him like you would a black guy in Texas caught with a little weed.
Because if Trump can get them to act emotionally his lawyers can argue that this is a witch hunt.
They have to go through this painstaking process. If the don't they embolden his base and suddenly those definitely-not-calls-to-action are much more threatening.
I disagree. The reason that we have gag orders is to protect the integrity of the process. The integrity of the process doesn’t have anything to do with Donald Trump, it has to do with literally everyone else. And we learned a long time ago that it’s not possible to have a fair trial when a loud defendant can manipulate the press, attack jurors and inflame the public. It’s time for him to shut up and spend some time in jail.
So what happens then? Do you think Trump supporters are just going to allow that to happen?
I understand why you say what you're saying, you need to think about the people you're actually dealing with.
I don't know what happens then. You seem to? I know what happens to societies who erect separate rules for emperors, kings, pharoahs and I guess presidents than for the rest of us serfs.
If the few folks who would come to Trump’s aid after witnessing the failure of the insurrection and subsequent imprisonment of so many of the participants want to storm a jail belonging to one of the most violent police forces in the U.S., well… it’ll be interesting.
The NYPD doesn’t really half-ass beating the shit out of people.
Crazy, one one hand they're a burgeoning nazi force and on the other they're bumbling idiots behind their great orange god.
Which is it? Are they a credible threat or not?
I’m not sure if you’re being honest or argumentative, but my take is that it’s both.
The folks to be concerned about aren’t really the die hard Trump supporters, but more the ones smart enough to see his popularity as a means to an end. These folks have other goals, and see Trump and his supporters as useful idiots.
I believe there is a small subset of his supporters who would do dangerous things to support Trump. But I also believe these people lack organization (or organize under the previously mentioned dangerous people - so if they get an idea that their actions are for other aims, they may bail), or are incapable (physically, capability, or motivationally) of performing the acts they are willing to do.
And I believe the vast majority of his supporters are people who, despite their rabid support of Trump, draw the line at physical actions.
Taken together - the smart ones know they can’t take on a jail, and don’t want to risk exposure for what is on the cusp of becoming a fad.
The violent ones might try something, but without clear leadership and like, a plan, they’ll just do some stupid protest. Maybe some loudmouth will shove a cop - that’s the ‘interesting’ scenario I’m referring to.
And the rest will watch it play out on a Sinclair-owned TV station.
Lol what are they going to do? Whine on truth social?
It seems like you're arguing that Trump should get special treatment.
No, what I'm saying is that when they finally throw Trump in jail the logic needs to be so ironclad that idiots can't refute it.
Keep in mind, these are idiots with guns that will absolutely use them on you because of what you believe/how you live. Hell, they're just looking for a reason to use them on people period!
I'm not advocating for Trump being given special treatment, I'm saying you have to think about the immediate backlash surrounding the "throw Trump in jail for contempt" move. It's not going to be you that suffers, at least not immediately, it will be the people that his base perceives as responsible. Do you think it makes sense for them to rush judgements when they have actual guns pointed at them?
Keep in mind, I am absolutely unaware of whether or not this is their reasoning. I cannot tell you what the prosecution, or anyone that finds themselves opposite Trump for that matter, is thinking. I'm only taking events as I see them and coming to, what I think is, a logical conclusion.
Feel free to prove me wrong. I'm all ears, or eyes. Whatever, you don't know me. I could be blind.
Have you met these people? Logic, facts, reality ... they don't mean much to them. Trump could be convicted and jailed in a case where everything is done by the book, it simply doesn't matter to these people. They live in a bubble of their own making and only let in things that support their world view.
I don't think anybody is calling for a rush to judgement.
How can I prove an opinion wrong?
Now why would they shoot Trump five times in the back while he lays on the ground unarmed?
Nah, he'll get another paltry $5k fine that is unlikely to ever be paid.
Iirc NY law puts a $1000 cap on fines for contempt in criminal cases.
So the slap on the wrist will be even gentler than that.
If it happens at all.
Jail and prison time are both possible though.
11 occurrences so far so 11k
The prosecution made a point of not asking for any jail time in this hearing, but rather a warning that future violations will escalate to that. I don't think the Judge really wants to jail Trump while the trial is ongoing. Trump will get a hefty fine as well as that warning. Well see how long it takes for Trump to end up in Rikers.
But why, though? Trump doesn't give a fuck about fines; time spent in jail is the only thing that has any chance of getting through to him because his wealth/grift can't solve it for him.
I'm willing to bet even just sending him to the holding cells in the couthouse for a couple hours each time he makes another out-of-order outburst would shut him up real quick.
All a short term trip to jail would do is play into the Martyr complex that he and his supporters have. He would complain that he's not getting a fair trial, and low-information voters who are not paying attention will believe it.
While the judge doesn't care about Trump's political prospects, he does care that the trial is fair and that public perceptions don't make it into the jury's deliberations. But marching Trump off to a holding cell will be such an event that it would be impossible to keep it from the jury, and could give Trump a valid avenue for appeal.
However, if the judge establishes a paper trail that proves Trump was given every chance to comply, then it would make it harder for the appeal to succeed. Trump can't very well argue that the court is biased against him when they gave him extra opportunities to comply.
He has and will continue to do this, and worse, and his cult will believe all of it, and worse. We cannot make decisions, especially not exceptions to laws, based on fears of how a fascist cult of supporters will react to it. They are going to do and say stupid/crazy shit, all the time, no matter what.
I don't care what it plays to. Make lady liberty stop peaking through her blindfold and treat him like the rest of us would be treated.
Because he wants to come off as a martyr to his base, and putting him in jail is exactly what he's aiming for to do that.
Can we try once? Just give him a night, let him know what he's up against?
They will make him one no matter what, deciding not to carry out justice out of fear of an angry and uninformed mob just puts decision making entirely in the hands of that mob.
Oh yeah, because if his base was even more motivated they might vote extra hard.
The Appellate Court likes to see that judges gradually escalate through the options, not just go straight for the harshest one available. It’s likely Marchan (and the prosecution) want to make this case as appeal-proof as possible.
If he wants to complain about 2 justice systems, I think that'd qualify as "fucking around and finding out."
I can't imagine anything that would bring Americans at large greater joy.
You think he'll try to force a mistrial somehow?
I mean, of course he's going to try to force a mistrial. It's not like he has a chance in hell of being found not guilty.
Juror #2 follows trump on truth social. Judy nullification is a very real possibility.
He wants to be jailed for contempt. The jail time for contempt ends before the election. All he has to do is sit in a cell/ home arrest and do nothing and his poll numbers will skyrocket. Most likely there is one or more republicans on the jury that will hung jury the actual verdict. Trump will walk out of prison with 11 to 1 voting to convict and go around saying "The jury found me innocent! The only reason I went to jail was because the judge is a liberal who abuses his power."
Wrong. The longer trump sits in jail the less bullshit he can spew the less appearances he can make and the more guilty he looks.
He will be given more chances and concessions, there will never be an actual consequence.
I disagree. Now that there is an actual trial he hasn't been able to wiggle out of, I think he's... well, I think he's kinda fucked.
I hope you are right.
Me too.