this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
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Image is from this SCMP article.

Much of the analysis below is sourced from Michael Roberts' great website.


Japan's ruling parliamentary coalition, consisting of the LDP (purple) and it's junior coalition partner Komeito (in light pink) have lost their ruling majority. They have ruled post-war Japan for almost its entire history. The LDP is currently led by Shigeru Ishiba after Kishida stood down due to a corruption scandal, and ties to the Unification Church.

While geopolitical factors (over the cold war between the US and China, etc) may have played a role, by far the biggest reason for this result in the poor economic conditions over the past few years. Inflation has risen and real wages have fallen, with little relief for the working class via things like tax reductions. While inequality in Japan is not as extreme as in America, it is still profound, with the top 10% possessing 60% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% possess just 5%.

Shinzo Abe previously tried to boost economic performance through monetary easing and fiscal deficits, while Kishida ran on a "new capitalism" which rejected Abe's neoliberalism and promised to reduce inequality. Nothing substantial has resulted from all this, however, other than increasing corporate wealth. Innovation continues to fall, and domestic profitability is low, resulting in decreasing investment at home by Japanese corporations. Labour productivity growth has only slightly picked up since the mid-2000s and is falling again. The rate of profit has fallen by half since the 1960s, and Japan has been in a manufacturing recession - or very close to it - since late 2022. In essence: there is no choice but between stagnation or decline.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 57 points 11 hours ago (5 children)

High speed rail in Canada between Toronto and Montreal estimated to cost $100b plus, or about $150m per kilometre, or about 10x the cost of similar projects in China

https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/2024-10-30/tgv-quebec-toronto/la-facture-sera-plus-salee-que-prevu.php

This will never happen

[–] [email protected] 31 points 11 hours ago

so like, 1500 people working for a year on 1 kilometer. Nice productivity increase since the 1800

[–] [email protected] 32 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

wow that might be more than california high-speed rail

[–] [email protected] 28 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago) (1 children)

so-far

Calipornia is very good at making 6-month infrastructure projects take 15 years.

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 11 hours ago

Sounds like a last ditch effort for the Liberals to get votes

[–] [email protected] 26 points 11 hours ago

We don't even have weekend commuter train service from Kitchener-Waterloo (regional population over 500000 and a tech-industry hub) to Toronto, on plain old rails, which is only 100Km.

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[–] [email protected] 54 points 12 hours ago (8 children)

eu might get its own dipshit central 😮

[–] [email protected] 39 points 11 hours ago

This will become an extremely easy tool in the conspiracy toolbox to drive euro-scepticism.

[–] [email protected] 42 points 11 hours ago

the only thing that can stop a bad guy with a CIA is a bad guy with a CIA

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago) (2 children)

New video twitter link, xcancel link appeared of Iran's ballistic missile retaliatory strike during Operation True Promise II.

While the stereotypical American commentary is both annoying and entertaining, the interesting part of the video is the trajectory of the first wave of missiles. You can clearly see them perform their "pull up" manoeuvre, then glide along at relatively low altitude, before performing their final terminal dive towards the target. These are likely Kheibar Shekan or Fattah-1 Manoeuvrable Re-entry Vehicle (MaRVs) performing their flight manouvers. I'll post a graphic below, and a research paper on this, if you want to dig in further with regards to this topic. This appears to have the defeated the Arrow 3 ballistic missile defence system, which is designed to intercept ballistic missiles outside of the earth's atmosphere, well before this point.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago) (2 children)

Guy in the video was being stupidly obnoxious, just shut up when you record

[–] [email protected] 21 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

"It's like independence day over here!"

That got a laugh out of me at least lol.

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[–] [email protected] 24 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

Bit more than just waves of dumbfire easily predictable slow bottle rockets from Hamas. Iran made Pissreal bleed. It was a strong showing.

[–] [email protected] 51 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago) (3 children)

While I'm a bit late to comment on this, I am only commenting on things I can actually read first hand given what happened last week. There has been another document leak, this time an apparent draft about a ceasefire deal in South Lebanon. I'll post it below. My opinion: this is a placeholder document that represents what Israel/US and Lebanese government want, it does not reflect the current state of any negotiations/potential negotiations, I repeat: it is merely a placeholder from the 26th of October stating the intentions of the US/Israel and the Lebanese government. Don't believe any claims that state that Hezbollah has agreed to this, that's not what this document is.

[–] [email protected] 32 points 11 hours ago

LMFAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAO! They are going to ask not just for a cessation of hostilities, but for Hezbollah to completely disarm for good. Yeah, good fuckin' luck with that, you dumb shits.

[–] [email protected] 32 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

seems like get civil war recipe

[–] [email protected] 31 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago) (1 children)

If Hezbollah rejects a similar agreement to this, and the US and Lebanon decide to enforce it anyway, then yes. But that is very unlikely to happen. The only way the Lebanese government would enforce such an agreement is if Hezbollah withdraws from the area. The Lebanese Army is not going to go into the South to fight Hezbollah. Which is why I state that this leak is just a statement of what the US, Israel and the Lebanese government want, and does not reflect the reality of any potential negotiations.

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[–] [email protected] 28 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

So the plan is basically "how about you do this instead of us"?

[–] [email protected] 33 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago) (1 children)

The plan is: Hezbollah agrees to this and withdraws in exchange for a ceasefire, the Lebanese army enters and carries out the UN resolution from the 2006 conflict. There's not supposed to be any actual fighting between sides, as far as I understand it. Also Israel has 7 days to carry out their own DMZ operations before that happens.

It's a wishlist of what the US wants, basically.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago) (1 children)

They keep doing this, they keep asking for stuff that they're not going to get. They did this (and still do this) with Russia and Ukraine, now they're going to do it with Hezbollah and Lebanon.

I honestly think no one running the US actually knows how to conduct foreign policy using diplomacy. These aren't resolutions, they're a gift list for Santa.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

US foreign policy negotiations, a summary:

"We get everything we want, and you get nothing, you got that? Capiche. What if you say no and continue fighting? Well fuck you and see you again next day/week/month/year when we're in the exact same situation, except thousands more are dead!"

[–] [email protected] 63 points 14 hours ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 20 points 11 hours ago

Forget Israel, this is how WW3 is actually gonna start, somehow, because we live in the stupidest timeline.

[–] [email protected] 68 points 15 hours ago
[–] [email protected] 65 points 15 hours ago (6 children)

Ritchie Torres is focusing on important issues that matter.

[–] [email protected] 30 points 11 hours ago

Red Scare 3.0 in full swing.

[–] [email protected] 30 points 12 hours ago

Seems like a strong way to bring a massive first amendment violation suit for Hasan. Twitch deciding he violated TOS is one thing, being explicitly targeted by Congress is another.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 12 hours ago (1 children)

This was ethan klein's fault btw, he's the one who used his 800k views podcast to launch this latest tirade against arab streamers

[–] [email protected] 36 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

BadEmpanada has been nuking the Kleins from orbit. It's been giving reddit-logo liberals in /r/BreadTube a fit for a week or two now. You love to see it. LOL.

[–] [email protected] 42 points 14 hours ago

Did Ritchie Torres just describe a bloodthirsty pig as a jewish man? Antisemitism smdh

[–] [email protected] 37 points 13 hours ago

I read it and is this pretty much the letter that D and his followers spammed congress with? It has pretty much verbatim what they have been spewing. I wouldnt be surprised if one of the google drive links is titled 'Hamasabi'. It even still mentions sneako and myron who are banned now (again). Insane cringe that a sitting congressperson is sending letters to whine about a streamer

[–] [email protected] 33 points 13 hours ago

But muh freeze peach! Unfortunately, the ACLU will only defend actual Nazis

[–] [email protected] 84 points 16 hours ago (4 children)

JUST IN: milei fired his Foreign Minister because she voted in favour of lifting the blockade on Cuba at the recent UN assembly.

[–] [email protected] 34 points 13 hours ago

He's such a sniveling nerd for AnCapism, yet embargoes trade to help his bazinga pals... what a loser.

[–] [email protected] 43 points 14 hours ago

"An-cap is when you do trade embargos for ideological reasons." ancaptain

[–] [email protected] 42 points 15 hours ago

Lmao tito-laugh

Diana Mondino after the country voted in favor of lifting the embargo against Cuba at the United Nations, the president's spokesperson said on Wednesday. Gerardo Werthein, who has been serving as Argentina's ambassador to the United States, will replace Mondino as the country's foreign minister, spokesperson Manuel Adorni said.

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[–] [email protected] 45 points 15 hours ago

Protesters in Peru block the Panamericana Norte highway in protest of increased insecurity - Telesur English

Article

The National Police of the Andean country confirmed on Monday that a group of demonstrators in Peru keeps blocked the Panamericana Norte highway, in the province of Virú, in protest at the increase of public insecurity.

About 515 kilometers from the Peruvian capital, the villagers of Virú keep blocked with different objects and burning tires the main highway in the area, since last Sunday night.

Protesters are protesting against the authorities for considering that the declaration of a state of emergency to combat crime and organized crime in that region has failed.

«No to extortion. No more bombs», were the slogans of some of the villagers, who also marched to reject attacks by extortion gangs. In this regard, the Peruvian News Agency reported that a police officer and a civilian were seriously injured during the organizational actions to unblock the road, located in the region of La Libertad.

In a dialogue with Canal N, General José Zavala, head of the police region La Libertad, reported that 300 agents of the National Police of Peru (PNP) have been deployed to try to restore order and open the way, allowing free passage for citizens.

The event follows a national strike by truckers last Wednesday, to which other sectors such as the merchant sector joined, shaking Lima for the third time in less than 30 days to protest the increase in crime.

The carriers also requested the elimination of extortion, the resignation of President Dina Boluarte, and the filing of legislative projects that would make the crime of urban terrorism a criminal offence.

[–] [email protected] 78 points 16 hours ago (4 children)

Kata'ib Hezbollah [Islamic Resistance in Iraq] military official Abu Ali al-Askari on Kamala vs. Trump:

"For us, there is no difference in the American elections between Trump or Kamala Harris coming to power in the administration of American evil. Harris and her so-called Democratic Party behind her may be worse than Trump and his party. We have had successful experiences with him, having subdued him in more than one confrontation. He lacks patience and cannot endure prolonged material depletion, which saved us much effort and time in revealing the true face of America as evil, exposing its weaknesses live on air."

Source

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