this post was submitted on 17 Aug 2024
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He’s had yet another horrible week. The old tricks aren’t working. Kamala Harris does not fear him. And it’s showing in the numbers.

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[–] [email protected] 196 points 4 months ago (8 children)

Just to remind everyone in 2016 people had pretty much already planned their Clinton victory parties and everyone "knew" that Trump was going to lose, the polling was so clear and Trump was such a joke. Perhaps some even took care of "more important" stuff than voting because it was so sure.

So keep your excitement to take you to the voting booths rather than letting it make you complacent.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Yea while Kamala is ahead in the polls , a frighteningly large amount of people still support 45

[–] [email protected] 27 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Even then, the error % on polls is high enough that Trump could be ahead instead.

Polls post their calculated error %. If they could be off by like 5% in either direction, then that’s what they say. And if the poll shows Trump losing by 2%, with a 5% error, that means Trump could win by 3%.

Every single reputable poll that has been published shows a Trump victory within the margin of error.

[–] [email protected] 29 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Thanks for saying this. It's Mid-August. There are two whole months in which things can go wildly off the rails. Rather than celebrating polls in mid-August, let's take this happy energy and make plans to go to the only poll that matters -- the actual election -- and make these mid-August hopes turn into January certainty. Plan the celebrations after we win in November, to coincide with Harris taking the Oath in January.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 4 months ago (4 children)

There are two whole months in which things can go wildly off the rails.

It’s astonishing how long the US election cycle is. There’s longer until the next US election than the entire campaign here in the UK, yet it’s all I’ve heard about for the past three years.

Can you guys not just chill the fuck out?

[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 months ago

I wish. Our politics are so exhausting.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Can you guys not just chill the fuck out?

I used to go years between worrying about politics before Trump was president. I'm hoping those days can return somehow.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Yes, this. During his "presidency", I got so sick of dreading the morning's news. When I'd see someone else and they'd say "did you see/hear what he did now?", you didn't even have to ask who "he" was; you knew.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

It was exhausting and the country barely survived it. I have no idea what's in store for any of us if they put his ass back there again.

[–] [email protected] -4 points 4 months ago (2 children)

"I wish I could just go back to sleep for 4 years." What a privileged take.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago

Not everyone wants to think about politics all day everyday.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

"Make Politics Boring Again" Republicans have by-and-large politicized a HUGE number of things that should simply be left up to the scientific community. We shouldn't NEED to have hearings on whether the planet is warming. The debate should be on minutia that aims to bring equity to all humanity, and frankly that's pretty boring.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago

Obviously not. If people would chill out it would have to be about judging and responding to actual policy decision, instead of watching GoT political drama.

The longer the election cycle, the more politics are a show and bad policy can be justified with "election tactics".

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

Media companies and political consultants have a vested interest in making this take as long as possible.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 months ago

The polls only look good because they're so much better than they were for Biden. It's still a toss-up, because those percentages are within the margin of error of the polls. (At least, for most of the swing states.)

[–] [email protected] 13 points 4 months ago

And make sure you tell everyone else to get out and vote.

Offer carpools to take people to vote if you can. We need numbers at the booths. Especially if you're in a swing state or red.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 4 months ago (2 children)

The mainstream media just doesn't reflect/represent the majority of Americans anymore and hasn't for quite some time, actually.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 4 months ago

This would suggest that the polls indicated that Hilary was more popular despite Trump going on to win the popular vote. This did not happen. The majority of Americans dislike Trump and he lost the popular vote and never had an approval rating over 50%.

However, there's a lot of reporting on polls that operate like the popular vote, despite the popular vote not really mattering.

The actual assessment is that the electoral college just doesn't reflect/represent the majority of Americans, and it never really did.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

Wait, that's what "they" all say?!

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago

Yeah, don't be so sure of winning that you get too lazy to fricking vote. And also watch out because I'm sure there will be some dirty tricks around polling stations as certain Republican areas get desperate

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (1 children)

and there's plenty of time for the propaganda machine to find a server, laptop or some other bullshit to give people an excuse to not vote for her.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

Honestly, I think this is one of the many reasons the hard right hate mail-in voting. There is less time for them pull off their typical rat-fucking dirty tricks if people already mailed in their votes.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)

Unfortunately I don't see Kamala winning just yet, nothing is certain, there's a lot of Trump supporters in the wood work, and the establishment liberal media play a game of "maybe if we pretend they're losing, they'll lose".

...which is wishful thinking that destroys people's grip on reality, and causes a lot of voters to not bother to show up.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 months ago (2 children)

The establishment media wants Trump to win, don't fool yourself.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I think it's pretty obvious that if that guy gets elected, it's going to be a shitstorm, and that isn't good for the establishment.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago (1 children)

And yet they carry his water every day.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

The newsmedia seems to be gutting him right now, except for a couple of right-wing outlets.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago

The "liberal media" wants low t to win.