electoralism

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Polls are basically tied between Trunt and Kamala (hexbear.net)

submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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If I was the dems, I wouldn't have let a million-plus poor working class people die of preventable COVID deaths. Apparently the poll numbers are lower than what Hill-dawg had at this point. Looking forward to hearing how this is all Russia's fault.

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago (2 children)

doesn't tied polls mean the dems are set to lose? some screenshots below from 538

spoiler

2016 election:

2020 election (which biden won with a narrow victory):

2024 election:

[–] [email protected] 25 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

The only states where polling actually matters are:

Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Ohio
Georgia
Arizona
North Carolina
Nevada
Possibly whatever district Omaha, NE is in if it's actually that close

Any analysis/polling done by the media that isn't solely focused on those states are busywork/useless neoliberal job programs for their fail-offspring.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 month ago (1 children)

What do you mean, the polls show that Texas is definitely in play for the Dems, for real this time! football-lucy

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

I think I'm gonna run for democraric governor of Texas. It seems like the easiest way to soak up millions of dollars with no expectations of anything happening.

Actually I take that back the person running against McConnell for his senate seat in Kentucky who absorbed millions of brunch dollars probably takes the cake. Amy something I think?

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Essentially a dead heat all over:

The only swing state where Harris is squeaking by above the probable margin of error is Michigan.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Tough to say. Historically, the error around polls is inconsistent i.e. polls could bias towards Republicans in one cycle and then flip and favor the Dems the next. But when you have literally the same candidate for one party running in each of the last three cycles and the same inner circle of people running for the other, it's very plausible that the polls are biased similarly in each cycle. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see similar results this time, but it's impossible to know for sure.

Oh yeah, there is also basically a polling industrial complex now where polls that look good for the Dems blow up on Reddit and other social media. Creates an environment that incentivizes polling companies to fudge numbers. Impossible to know for sure if this is happening but I don't discount the possibility