electoralism

Tough to say. Historically, the error around polls is inconsistent i.e. polls could bias towards Republicans in one cycle and then flip and favor the Dems the next. But when you have literally the same candidate for one party running in each of the last three cycles and the same inner circle of people running for the other, it's very plausible that the polls are biased similarly in each cycle. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see similar results this time, but it's impossible to know for sure.

Oh yeah, there is also basically a polling industrial complex now where polls that look good for the Dems blow up on Reddit and other social media. Creates an environment that incentivizes polling companies to fudge numbers. Impossible to know for sure if this is happening but I don't discount the possibility