even Iran had to try and help KKKamala outπππ
this post was submitted on 19 Sep 2024
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electoralism
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the poll numbers are lower than what Hill-dawg had at this point
This is because the polls are more accurate than what we had in 2016. Trump's candidacy activated a base that pollsters were wildly underestimating, but now they properly compensate for them in their numbers.
That said, the initial Kamala enthusiasm has definitely died down - and her campaign is responsible for snuffing it out. Who would have guessed that the message "I will continue to do exactly what my predecessor has been doing" would depress voter enthusiasm?
Honestly I think it would be neck and neck with any candidate good or bad. Americans have gone insane
I feel like a candidate that made semi-believable promises to benefit normal people would clean up any of these elections but the dems haven't tried that since 2008
I've never seen a more clownish GOP presentation and I've been around for over four decades. The fact that it's still yet another neck and neck horse race is extra Jokerfying because while I don't expect Burgerland to wake up overnight to electoralism being a distraction and a pressure valve, the fact that half of the voters or so want more of those particular fucking clowns is still disturbing to me.
We need an intervention
I don't know what that is but this is unsustainable
Theyβll blame Muslims this time around I think. Then theyβll gloat about people in Palestine and Lebanon getting what they βdeserveβ for not endorsing Kamala Harris.
doesn't tied polls mean the dems are set to lose? some screenshots below from 538
spoiler
2016 election:
2020 election (which biden won with a narrow victory):
2024 election:
The only states where polling actually matters are:
- Wisconsin
- Pennsylvania
- Michigan
- Ohio
- Georgia
- Arizona
- North Carolina
- Nevada
- Possibly whatever district Omaha, NE is in if it's actually that close
Any analysis/polling done by the media that isn't solely focused on those states are busywork/useless neoliberal job programs for their fail-offspring.
What do you mean, the polls show that Texas is definitely in play for the Dems, for real this time!
I think I'm gonna run for democraric governor of Texas. It seems like the easiest way to soak up millions of dollars with no expectations of anything happening.
Actually I take that back the person running against McConnell for his senate seat in Kentucky who absorbed millions of brunch dollars probably takes the cake. Amy something I think?
Essentially a dead heat all over:
The only swing state where Harris is squeaking by above the probable margin of error is Michigan.
Tough to say. Historically, the error around polls is inconsistent i.e. polls could bias towards Republicans in one cycle and then flip and favor the Dems the next. But when you have literally the same candidate for one party running in each of the last three cycles and the same inner circle of people running for the other, it's very plausible that the polls are biased similarly in each cycle. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see similar results this time, but it's impossible to know for sure.
Oh yeah, there is also basically a polling industrial complex now where polls that look good for the Dems blow up on Reddit and other social media. Creates an environment that incentivizes polling companies to fudge numbers. Impossible to know for sure if this is happening but I don't discount the possibility
When Harris loses it's actually my fault, personally. The KGB paid me quite a sum to personally convince people that genocide is actually a bad thing and I've done a pretty good job I think
The KGB paid me quite a sum to personally convince people that genocide is actually a bad thing
You MONSTER!
I'm still praying for a dead even tie no matter how unrealistic it is.
I'm still riden with Biden, even if I gotta write'em
I'll say it again: historically dems have needed the black vote to win and kid killer kamala doesn't have it. In the run up to the 2020 primaries, she had a projected 1%. What's changed? This could be an election with a record low turnout.
What's changed?
The same DNC-media apparatus that forced Biden through in 2020 is now putting it's weight behind Harris
What's changed?
She's the Vice President and handpicked successor of the person they voted for in 2020, and basically promising to be the exact same as him.
I'll say it again: historically dems have needed the black vote to win and kid killer kamala doesn't have it.
That's what happens when they nominate someone who made a career out of prosecuting black people in "California's top cop" Harris.
Im honestly shocked it's this low. Trump completely failed to capitalize on his first assassination attempt, that photo should be the photo on the decade but nobody talks about it anymore. Vance also seems like a terrible VP pick
Im really surprised that after 2016, so many libs are going on about how Kamala is an absolute lock to win. Granted, Trump is really fumbling at the moment, but he appeals to a larger base.
After deciding watch the US presidential debate for some godforsaken reason, I can see why. Trump did his usual nonsense, making up racist myths about immigrants, but people know what to expect from him, he's been doing this for close to a decade now, no surprises there. You know what you're getting with Trump. Harris had the opportunity to leave an impression, and she just didn't. She bombed hard, tried to enter a mudslinging contest with Trump over who is more racist and xenophobic making up her own racist myths about immigrants and Palestinians, and sounded detached from reality, especially on Ukraine, claiming that Russia would invade Poland next, in contrast to Trump's more "pro peace" solution. Harris' only solid win was on abortion, and one has to ask if that's enough to win an election.
I've been trying to grasp the mind of a typical swing state voter post-debate. I personally thought the whole thing was a shitshow (who was weeping over hosting the Taliban at Camp David for?), but the overwhelming consensus in lib circles was that Harris trounced Trump hard and is going to crush him in November.
As for Trump himself, he seems even less coherent than he was in 2020 and JD Vance is a legitimate nonentity, so I have no idea what's there to excite anyone outside the die hard Trump faithful, but I also have zero sense of where republican enthusiasm is sitting. The more exposure I get from the immigrants-eating-pets discourse, which is all people seem to have taken away from the debate, the more I'm convinced that the country has just completely lost even the pretense of seriousness.
The Dems are ambivalent about losing an election, probably because their larger platform of elevating fascists and then campaigning against them is one they literally cannot lose.
I just hope one wins the popular vote and the other the electoral vote
Weren't covid deaths overrepresented in traditionally republican demographics?
Don't get me wrong I also think they should have responsible covid policies but I don't think you can blame their polling on that I think they just suck.
The US is such a reactionary country that I think responsible covid policies would probably hurt them at the polls tbh
Good question, I remember hearing that covid deaths were disproportionately people of color who are not typically republican voters, but I'm not really sure.
I've read that was the case for the first year of covid but heavily conservative counties have had significantly higher death rates than lib/swing counties ever since the vaccines became widely available.
Hauk tuah