Try to keep all US election-posting here.
I'm gonna be honest.
Even though I didn't like Kamala, I still view the overall result as a tragedy for the working-class, as the cultural zeitgeist will likely change following this.
this post was submitted on 04 Nov 2024
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At first, i agreed with the explanations based on the lack of cohesion of the democratic party, and the influence of Palestine, on the votes :
With most votes counted, the 2024 election elected D.Trump with ~73M votes vs. ~68M for K.Harris, compared to 2020 when D.Trump was rejected despite having the same numbers(, 74.2M,) and J.Biden was elected with 81.3M votes.
Furthermore, D.Trump would have received less votes without influent people like Robert Kennedy Jr. on his side, who still received votes apparently.
However, third parties like the libertarian party or the Green party received much more votes in 2016 than in 2024(, and the republican&democratic parties much less). Having gained 1M votes at most wouldn't have that much of an impact.
(I've also sometimes heard(, mostly twitter, but here's msnbc,) that the 2.5M muslim-americans voted D.Trump in opposition but that's not supported(source), even if J.Stein should have obtained much more if these surveys were trustworthy).
While i can't deny the influence of many pro-Palestine actors, i can't really prove it by the numbers either, and some deny its importance. Also, the high voter turnout doesn't favor the alternative of a boycott.
I only took a superficial look, so i don't doubt that there're many americans here who could easily correct my mistakes if they want to
People didn't feel like voting for Kamala, so instead of voting for Trump they stayed home.
Ideally, stats by categories would be more useful to draw a conclusion, but at first sight it doesn't seem so though :
It says those are expected vote totals for states where less than 97 percent of the vote has been counted. Trump is gonna end up with some 73.000.000 votes, while Kamala has 68.000.000 right now, Biden received 81.200.000 in 2020. That's 14 million fewer votes overall than in 2020. That sounds to me like a lot of Dem voters didn't show up.
It says those are expected vote totals for states where less than 97 percent of the vote has been counted
We may have understood it the same way, yet just to be sure : The turnout is counted normally, except for states where less than 97% of the votes are counted, in which case the reported turnout has been replaced by the expected turnout.
That sounds to me like a lot of Dem voters didn’t show up
You're right, if they didn't voted for third parties, if the votes are mostly counted, if the voter turnout is the same, and if republicans didn't received more votes than in 2020, then where did these 14M votes went ?
Thanks for confirming that i'm missing something, don't know if you or someone here have the explanation.
Well, they haven't counted all the votes yet, but it seems that 158.000.000 total votes were cast according to an analyst from UFL, who gets info from the bureau of elections or whatever. If Trump has 73M and Kamala has 68M votes, some 2.4M have voted third party. I guess that means there are still some 14.5 million votes to be counted.
Which seems like a lot, doesn't it? I don't know what's going on, perhaps we're making some error somewhere.
14 million write-ins for our boy Xi.
And if they don't have the same source, it confirms the WaPo's 65% with its 64.52%(, in the VEP_TURNOUT_RATE column)
we’re making some error somewhere
Yeah, you're right, it's too obvious, anyone can do 72.6M+68M+2.2M and easily see that it's only ~143M out of 158.5, so we're indeed making an obvious mistake somewhere. They're probably simply not counted yet, as you said(, California is slow here).
"RESUME THE COUNT!" - blue MAGA probably
While it is probably just that they werent counted yet can we atleast entertain the funniest outcome which is that after 4 years of yelling about how the election was stolen from him Trump actually stole the election, and hacked the voting machines or something? And a lot of the missing votes were fake? I just think it would be so funny I'd love to see how liberals reacted to that once its revealed. Like theyd probably just go "well shucks guess next time we wont let that happen".
Just a note on this :
While it is probably just that they werent counted yet
It's unrelated to the rest of your comment, but i wanted to underline something here : California has 25.2M eligible voters(, based on the VEP column from the document given by @multitotal above). If we've only counted half of their votes, then it's there that we'll find most of the missing 15.5M votes.
Since California overwhelmingly votes Democrat(, appr. 66%-33%), then it may be fair to assume 8M more votes for K.Harris and 4M for D.Trump, and they're separated by 4M votes.
In the end, Kamala Harris probably got almost as many votes as Donald Trump but i've yet to read a newspaper saying that. Even if it won't change the outcome of the election obviously, and i was too young/uninterested in 2016 to say if newspapers correctly reported from the beginning that H.Clinton ended up with more votes than D.Trump, i think that something so obvious/easy should have been noticed, or perhaps that i'm mistaken again and/or that they don't really care since the results stay unchanged.
Just to add that a lot of people are focused on explaining these results by the votes of minorities, even if it's mostly white people voting republican(, confirmations : 1, 2, 3, 4), yet when we look at it, it didn't evolve that much between 2012 and 2020(, here's for 2020, and here's for 2024). I'm not saying that there's nothing to say about the hispanic vote, but it just feels 'less pertinent'/'too simple' once you see the ups&downs, i.d.k., there's probably more pertinent infos, such as the inflation or something(, i.d.k.), here's my 2cts on your election 🤷.
In any case, it's too obvious to even point out, but journalists didn't explained the results solely by the hispanic vote, so i can't criticize some biases towards oversimplification here, and since i've checked i can confirm that the hispanic vote is indeed a noticeable change like we're being told(, even if it doesn't seem to be particular to D.Trump, but something that began ~20 years ago, at least here&there, but not here&there).
This seems like a good news for our instance though.
Ya i mean at the end of the day it doesnt matter i just thougnt itd be really funny if the democrats put all that effort into losing and Trump still had to steal the election.
If they were votes for third parties, then they would have shown up by now.
For all Americans here, don't forget the results don't matter much, the fight continues and bourgeois democracy will never truly represent you anyway.
if trump wins do libs immediately pretend to be pro-palestine?
No, they're going to double down on pro Israel talking points and blame the Tankies and our *checks notes* belief that humans shouldn't be genocided, for not voting for genocide enough.
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Ugh I wish there was a way both of them could win 🥺💕 I just like them both so much! Best of luck to the both of you 🥰
Whatever the outcome, we can be proud that everyone gave 110% and did their best! Hopefully there won't be any hard feelings, and they can shake hands with the winner after.
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LETS GO BIDEN #RIDINWITHBIDEN #WRITEINBIDEN
He is the only one who can defeat Trump, you guys convinced me! A vote for Harris is a vote for Trump!
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Honestly man I can't even say I am shocked. Saw it coming from miles away.
You mean to say that --
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switching candidates halfway through the election
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having your replacement candidate be one of the few people somehow less popular than Biden
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having said candidate go around openly endorsing genocide
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telling leftists to ignore this, because genocide isn't really a big deal
-- isn't some kind of winning strategy to Unite the Left?
Honestly, imo they lost the election before Gaza even entered the mainstream conversation. The Dems the past 4 years have exhibited nothing but betrayal after betrayal of their constituency. From record deportations of immigrants, to crushing labor strikes, to escalating the trade war with China, to deceiving the public about COVID relief, to bungled natural disaster responses, to lying about Biden's obvious cognitive decline, etc.
Gaza was just the nail in the coffin.
can't forget just completely dropping the ball on the most popular campaign promises (enshrining reproductive rights, student debt relief)
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You godless commies should have Pokémon Gone to the polls, now everyone will DIE and it is your fault.
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If the election of a single person can spell the end of your “democracy,” how democratic really was it in the first place?
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Looking forward to getting over all this crap so people can finally start campaigning for the midterms immediately
Unfortunately since trump is probably gonna win, we're gonna have at least a month of liberal meltdowns pointing the fingers at russia, the green party, muslims, etc.
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Honey, wake up, new narrative just dropped.
If only the evil Russians didn't email bomb threats, Kamala would have won. :( Damn you, Putin! You win again you dastardly villain!
She not only lost, she lost big. A few bomb threats didn't make the difference.
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Well… dems on Twitter are salivating over a completely flattened Gaza as revenge for their loss. Very cool…
Yup. Saw a few of them already saying they look forward to buying property in ethnically cleansed Gaza/West Bank.
Also this:
They really cannot keep their masks on can they?
To them anti-fascism is just a vibe, and social justice causes just an aesthetic, a way to signal team loyalty. When push comes to shove and they get scratched, all of their feigned sympathy with the oppressed goes out the window and they become foaming at the mouth Nazis indistinguishable from MAGA.
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Determining which candidates to vote for in my state/county/city’s local elections by going to each candidates twitter and searching “Israel”
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This election has proven that the fearmongering for the Greens by the Democrats was unfounded. The Greens won 0,7% of the vote in Michigan and the Dems there lost by more than a percent
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